Saturday, November 21, 2009

Mahathir (Part 1)

Discover the life of Mahathir Mohamad, one of Southeast Asia’s most outspoken and controversial leaders. As Prime Minister for 22 years, he modernises Malaysia. The world’s tallest twin towers is one of his projects.

Part 1 explores Mahathir’s early years, from the Second World War and his life under Japanese occupation, to his emerging political activism protesting British colonialism. We look at his medical school days, where Mahathir meets the woman of his dreams, and his days in private practice in a small rural town.

In 1964, Mahathir is first elected to Parliament, and quickly earns a reputation as an exceptional debater and fierce advocate of Malay rights. However, his meteoric political rise is abruptly cut short in 1969 when he loses his seat and writes a letter that expels him from his political party UMNO. Eventually, Mahathir eventually makes a comeback and later becomes Malaysia’s fourth Prime Minister.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

IT'S TIME TO TURN ON OTHER GROWTH ENGINES

       Surprisingly, after the Congress accepted the bill, the price of shares started to fall at a greater pace everyday instead of recovering as happened on September 19, the day the Paulson proposal was announced. Why? Because, it was about confidence, which is always sensitive with any change, even a minute one. On September 19, the firm announcement by Paulson and the very strong support of President Bush created confidence that this proposal would be approved swiftly, the size of the bail-out fund would be big enough, and it would be implemented with enough flexibility as proposed by Paulson. It was the size of the fund, the potential speed of approval and the flexibility in its implementation that convinced the public that distressed assets would be taken out of the financial institutions promptly and their financial positions would strengthen soon, ending up in a massive purchase of shares of financial institutions, which brought up their prices. But after over one week, the Congress rejected the bill, confidence shattered a bit even though it was finally approved after two weeks, because during this period of time, financial institutions in the US that needed help from this bail-out plan got weaker very fast, making investors speculate that the size of distressed assets to be tackled would be bigger than the bail-out fund.
       Besides, some financial institutions in Europe collapsed and needed to be taken over by another financial institution. Worse is that the Congress set conditions limiting the utilisation of the bail-out fund into phases, allowing only US$250 billion in the first tranche. This condition had a negative impact psychologically. The limited amount of the first tranche would speed up sale of distressed assets as sellers are not fully confident about the availability of the next tranche. Should the total US$700 billion be allowed to be implemented freely, financial institutions would not rush to sell as they would feel that the whole amount is still available, which would not put too much pressure on the price of distressed assets.
       Moreover, the recent behaviour of the Congress indicated to the public that if this $700-billion fund were not enough, there would be no hope for additional amount. This created fear that the amount of distressed assets beyond $700 billion would be left to undermine the strength of certain financial institutions. Besides, the Congress did set some conditions in the implementation of the fund, which makes it less flexible and thus creates fear that certain distressed assets may not be accepted by the buyer and the implementation may not be fast enough to save the financial institutions. Consequently, the perception of the plan as approved by the Congress is much different from that announced by Paulson on September 19. With the plan as approved, the public believed that financial institutions without excessive distressed assets could manage to sell them down and survive smoothly, but those with too much distressed assets may have to increase capital to compensate for some additional losses. Definitely, the plan as approved could not create confidence that all distressed assets would be taken out and that all financial institutions would recover to perform their normal duty of extending credit to the private sector soon.
       It could be said that even if this bail-out plan as approved by the Congress could limit the damage of the financial institutions, it would not strengthen all financial institutions enough to support the recovery of real sector for another long while. At the same time, the major increase of oil price in the first half of the year still has a second round effect on inflation in the second half and thereby slows down private expenditure. Moreover, higher unemployment, caused by the slump of housing construction and by the rationalisation of work process of various industries to reduce cost, has affected private consumption. The reduced consumption leads to the reduction of sale and production. The prices of shares in the real sector are inevitably decreasing.
       Unfortunate developments in the US have affected the whole world, in the financial sector as well as the stock exchange and international trade. The bail-out plan approved did save the financial institutions from weakening further and prevented contagion into other countries, especially those in Asia where investments in US mortgage-backed securities were very limited. But the effect on the stock exchange is inevitable since foreign investing institutions had to sell down their investments overseas to bring money back to support the liquidity and financial strength of their parent companies in the US and Europe. Besides, the reduction of spending by buyers in the US, in Europe (which experience similar consequences from sizeable investment in mortgage-backed securities and big surge in oil price) and in Japan (which has been affected by big surge in oil price and inflation) will definitely reduce exports of various countries in Asia, including Thailand. We have to be prepared for the slowdown of export and must try to speed up other growth engines instead, be it government investment, private investment, or domestic consumption. Leadership and efforts of the government in the right direction are now very much needed.

Magnificent seven

       In the most important, most revered event since the invention of the brontosaurus trap,Microsoft shipped the most incredibly fabulous operating system ever made; the release of Windows 7 also spurred a new generation of personal computers of all sizes at prices well below last month's offers.The top reason Windows 7 does not suck: There is no registered website called Windows7Sucks.com
       Kindle e-book reader maker Amazon.com and new Nook e-book reader vendor Barnes and Noble got it on; B&N got great reviews for the "Kindle killer"Nook, with dual screens and touch controls so you can "turn" pages, plays MP3s and allows many non-B&N book formats, although not the Kindle one;Amazon then killed the US version of its Kindle in favour of the international one, reduced its price to $260(8,700 baht), same as the Nook; it's not yet clear what you can get in Thailand with a Nook, but you sure can't (yet) get much, relatively speaking, with a Kindle;but here's the biggest difference so far,which Amazon.com has ignored: the Nook lets you lend e-books to any other Nook owner, just as if they were paper books; the borrowed books expire on the borrower's Nook in two weeks.
       Phone maker Nokia of Finland announced it is suing iPhone maker Apple of America for being a copycat; lawyers said they figure Nokia can get at least one, probably two per cent (retail) for every iPhone sold by Steve "President for Life" Jobs and crew via the lawsuit,which sure beats working for it -$6 (200 baht) to $12(400 baht) on 30 million phones sold so far, works out to $400 million or 25 percent of the whole Apple empire profits during the last quarter;there were 10 patent thefts, the Finnish executives said, on everything from moving data to security and encryption.
       Nokia of Finland announced that it is one month behind on shipping its new flagship N900 phone, the first to run on Linux software; delay of the $750(25,000 baht) phone had absolutely no part in making Nokia so short that it had to sue Apple, slap yourself for such a thought.
       Tim Berners-Lee, who created the World Wide Web, said he had one regret:the double slash that follows the "http:"in standard web addresses; he estimated that 14.2 gazillion users have wasted 48.72 bazillion hours typing those two keystrokes, and he's sorry; of course there's no reason to ever type that, since your browser does it for you when you type "www.bangkokpost.com" but Tim needs to admit he made one error in his lifetime.
       The International Telecommunication Union of the United Nations, which doesn't sell any phones or services, announced that there should be a mobile phone charger that will work with any phone; now who would ever have thought of that, without a UN body to wind up a major study on the subject?;the GSM Association estimates that 51,000 tonnes of chargers are made each year in order to keep companies able to have their own unique ones.
       The Well, Doh Award of the Week was presented at arm's length to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development; the group's deputy secretary-general Petko Draganov said that developing countries will miss some of the stuff available on the Internet if they don't install more broadband infrastructure; a report that used your tax baht to compile said that quite a few people use mobile phones but companies are more likely to invest in countries with excellent broadband connections; no one ever had thought of this before, right?
       Sun Microsystems , as a result of the Oracle takeover, said it will allow 3,000 current workers never to bother coming to work again; Sun referred to the losses as "jobs," not people; now the fourth largest server maker in the world, Sun said it lost $2.2 billion in its last fiscal year; European regulators are holding up approval of the Oracle purchase in the hope of getting some money in exchange for not involving Oracle in court cases.
       The multi-gazillionaire and very annoying investor Carl Icahn resigned from the board at Yahoo ; he spun it as a vote of confidence, saying current directors are taking the formerly threatened company seriously; Yahoo reported increased profits but smaller revenues in the third quarter.
       The US House of Representatives voted to censure Vietnam for jailing bloggers; the non-binding resolution sponsored by southern California congresswoman Loretta Sanchez said the Internet is "a crucial tool for the citizens of Vietnam to be able to exercise their freedom of expression and association;"Hanoi has recently jailed at least nine activists for up to six years apiece for holding pro-democracy banners. Iran jailed blogger Hossein "Hoder" Derakshan for 10 months - in solitary confinement.